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304 stainless steel market is expected to gradually out of the downturn - Tianjin stainless steel co. , LTD
by：Hongmei
2020-09-12
Currently 304 stainless steel with social inventory continues to fall, but maintain high crude steel production, market resources supply pressure is larger;
Iron ore prices continue to fall in October, cost support strength weakened further.
From the point of supply and demand and cost factors, November steel market demand into the traditional off-season, the domestic steel market is expected to November will be tight trading range.
Macro economic comprehensive index continues to rebound, small amplitude liquidity small amplitude recovery;
Cost of composite index decreased amplitude reduced;
Demand data recovered slightly.
Iron ore prices and finished steel prices significantly differentiated, upstream downstream transfer profits iron ore, iron and steel enterprise gross margin rebound.
In particular, hot-rolled coil under the export-led, gross margin level is high.
In the short term, the iron ore market stabilization after repair the space up, but the oversupply situation is inevitable.
Expected Lange composite index range is 125 -
135, the target for 130.
Maintain the initial judgement in the third quarter, the directional stimulus takes effect further, the steel industry fund risk is difficult to improve, the enterprise differentiation, output growth is limited, looking forward to the iron ore market formed a new equilibrium.
Fixed asset investment growth rose slightly, is due to the contribution of the infrastructure investment growth picks up, the growth in manufacturing investment and real estate investment growth is declining.
Means that the economy is mainly policy effect the influence, needs further to manufacturing conduction.
Directed by the central government stimulus measures, each region to carry out the policy are also beginning to come on stage, 304 stainless steel with good momentum of economic recovery continues.
Maintain the initial judgement, 2014 years, fixed asset investment growth will be 18%, real estate investment growth fell, the infrastructure investment growth space is limited, low manufacturing investment.
of liquidity continue, to dissolve the risk of policy, directional ShiCe, rather than blindly contraction leverage. The sharp rise in social financing and loans, and shadow banking further under control. However, iron and steel, as in industries with excess capacity, steel trade industry as exposure, and real estate is a qualitative for high-risk industry, capital tense situation difficult to change. Such as the early stage of the report pointed out that the steel trade, logistics enterprises after exposure, a marked increase in the production of iron and steel enterprise credit risk. 304 stainless steel with state-owned enterprises is in fact the palm, and private steel enterprises under the main stress, the steel industry restructuring will really begin. Overall, the current domestic economic environment as a whole is still weak, face also does not have the big stimulus policy, market demand is difficult to have significant release, cost support is still weak. So domestic seamless pipe market is difficult to have a good performance, but the market price drop is too large, the mainstream market prices have been relatively low, prices will continue to lower space narrowing, and did not fall in place of the market will undoubtedly increase fall in. Seamless tube is expected in October, domestic market prices continue to bottom line, but the decline or narrow. We believe that the international steel market is expected to 'warm'. North America, has experienced the early fall after finishing, the steel mills to raise prices again greatly boost market confidence, 4 quarter orders in good condition, has begun to accept November shipment order, later will have more added to the price increase, so the north American market is expected to return to rally in November. European market, continued weak demand lead to summer break at market weakness and seasonal demand off-season, prices have hit bottom, basic to regain the north American market rally, under the influence of European steel prices is only a matter of time and opportunity, face up to four quarters of the opportunity that move, do not rule out the European steel mills will be announced in advance or 4 quarter of the price increase November to boost market confidence. Asian markets, through continuous consolidation after the downturn, the market has divided the situation, the Chinese government dish to boost the economy, the demand of the market is expected to increase slowly, 304 stainless steel market is expected to gradually out of the downturn, and it will bring to the entire Asian market strong support. To sum up, we believe that the international steel market gradually 'warmer' in November.
of liquidity continue, to dissolve the risk of policy, directional ShiCe, rather than blindly contraction leverage. The sharp rise in social financing and loans, and shadow banking further under control. However, iron and steel, as in industries with excess capacity, steel trade industry as exposure, and real estate is a qualitative for high-risk industry, capital tense situation difficult to change. Such as the early stage of the report pointed out that the steel trade, logistics enterprises after exposure, a marked increase in the production of iron and steel enterprise credit risk. 304 stainless steel with state-owned enterprises is in fact the palm, and private steel enterprises under the main stress, the steel industry restructuring will really begin. Overall, the current domestic economic environment as a whole is still weak, face also does not have the big stimulus policy, market demand is difficult to have significant release, cost support is still weak. So domestic seamless pipe market is difficult to have a good performance, but the market price drop is too large, the mainstream market prices have been relatively low, prices will continue to lower space narrowing, and did not fall in place of the market will undoubtedly increase fall in. Seamless tube is expected in October, domestic market prices continue to bottom line, but the decline or narrow. We believe that the international steel market is expected to 'warm'. North America, has experienced the early fall after finishing, the steel mills to raise prices again greatly boost market confidence, 4 quarter orders in good condition, has begun to accept November shipment order, later will have more added to the price increase, so the north American market is expected to return to rally in November. European market, continued weak demand lead to summer break at market weakness and seasonal demand off-season, prices have hit bottom, basic to regain the north American market rally, under the influence of European steel prices is only a matter of time and opportunity, face up to four quarters of the opportunity that move, do not rule out the European steel mills will be announced in advance or 4 quarter of the price increase November to boost market confidence. Asian markets, through continuous consolidation after the downturn, the market has divided the situation, the Chinese government dish to boost the economy, the demand of the market is expected to increase slowly, 304 stainless steel market is expected to gradually out of the downturn, and it will bring to the entire Asian market strong support. To sum up, we believe that the international steel market gradually 'warmer' in November.
