A trade war with China fired the first shot, environmental policy intensive strong-arm reaction in July

More round clash, a trade war with China entered the white-hot into July in earnest and shooting a trade war with China: on June 15th, trump common voice of the White House, the President of the United States said it would $50 billion worth of imports in China to impose a 25% tariff. Subsequently, the U. S. trade representative's office ( USTR) Published two lists specific content, including a total of 1102 kinds of products, value $50 billion. Among them, the listing 1 includes released on April 6th 1333 proposed tax increases product in the list of 818, total value of $34 billion, on July 6, formal tax; Listing 2 includes 284 amounted to 16 billion dollars of products, involving parts of chemical products and high-tech mechanical products, the specific tax date has not yet been released. On July 4, the State Council tariffs commission office officials clarified before Japanese news inaccurate reports, says it will not prior to the implementation of countermeasures. At a regular press conference on July 5, the Ministry of Commerce, the spokesman said the United States again put the so-called 34 billion tax products list, about more than $200, probably accounted for about 59% of the products of the foreign capital enterprise in China. Among them, the United States make up a significant portion of the enterprise. The duty of the United States is the blow for businesses of both countries, in the fight against global trade chain at the same time, also in harm America itself. It can be seen that add tariff, China once again stressed this bad policy, once the tariff policy started, China will also act, for domestic and foreign investment and import and export pressure effects, market negative emotion surge, makes the enterprise cost is increased, against future price movements to increase somewhat. American interest rates against the drop, depreciation how broken? Nearly period of time, the yuan against the dollar parity and breaking 6. 4, 6. 5, and 6. 6 and 6. Important mark of 65, the RMB exchange rate at sight once close to 6. 7, the currency market is worrying, explore the reason of the depreciation, can be done from several aspects, first, the external trade war intensified, trade demand weak cause sluggish exports will give exchange rate depreciation pressure. On June 14, the federal reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, a stronger dollar, renminbi passive fall. On the other hand, the central bank announced on June 25, will be in July 5, implementation will be 0. 5%, to releasing about 700 billion yuan of money market, the market increase in money supply, exacerbated inflation trends, affect the value of the yuan down. , of course, as the fed raising interest rates to enter the second half of the year, the dollar cycle more than half, or dollar will remain under pressure, after the RMB exchange rate also has the possibility to stabilize. July to continue, environmental protection policy to come in the second half of the beginning, along with the environmental protection policy of restricting output power again. The State Council on July 3, issue a notice to win the blue sky battle action plan for three years to the next three years to improve air quality, involving the provinces and cities including beijing-tianjin-hebei and surrounding areas, the Yangtze river delta region, Shanghai, jiangsu, zhejiang, anhui and Fen nutrient-laden plain 11 cities. Increased production capacity of steel, coking and other energy-intensive industries are strictly prohibited, and strictly implement capacity substitution. Further emphasize strengthen the pollution treatment of key industries. National file once issued, everywhere have also issued documents to follow up, on July 4, tangshan again with environmental protection sword, release the tangshan iron and steel, coking ultra-low emission and depth implementation scheme to reduce emissions from coal-fired power plants. Emphasize the pollution problems in the process of the steel industry production, refinement of sintering, ironmaking, steelmaking process, to achieve national special steel, coking industry minimum standards for emissions limits. Continue to limit production policies continue to weigh on the supply side, steel making, supply-side shrink again, further expansion of energy-intensive industries of high pollution form constraints, is expected in the near future regional environmental files will be coming ashore, supply will shrink or improved in the future. Summary in the first week of July, a trade war clouds approaching, the two sides', tariffs, China is often said, will be the implementation of countermeasures, but not before the United States, the domestic market by external shocks, pushing the panic, investment and import and export are under great pressure. Become weaker the currency market on the other hand, the recent focus, on the one hand, tariffs date nears, friction, impact of currency fluctuations, the fed six months to raise interest rates, investment market encounter cold, $reflux, predict the U. S. economy, a stronger dollar, renminbi passive down; , on the other hand, the central bank will fall to the ground, support small micro enterprise financing difficult problem, and then release the 700 billion yuan to market, increased money supply, fuel inflation, the value of the yuan pressure drop, of course, the recent macro events in the majority, the federal reserve to raise interest rates also has entered the second half of the year, the dollar or not continued to be strong, the yuan down or is not a long term. To limit production side, the blue sky national defense documents issued and tangshan environmental strong-arm reaction again, steel supply side contraction continues, in the short term is expected around environmental policy documents will be on stage in succession, the second half of the year, environmental protection is still an important factor of disturbance hong kong-listed.