Steel prices or late up before they fall down pressure in late September

As 21 industry categories in the first single released industry PMI data, steel PMI data on market expectations and the trend of steel prices will have far-reaching influence. According to the physical union steel logistics professional committee, a senior researcher at analyst is introduced: & other; Steel in July PMI released on August 1, immediately to the weak form boost market confidence, the steel futures prices, spot prices started to rally from Aug. 2. ” In addition, each component from steel PMI metrics, production index, index of new orders and new export orders index expansion interval, reflect the enterprise's production and sales activities are active; Purchase price index of 63. 2%, reflecting the raw material prices rise, the cost of steel price formation: finished goods inventory index for 33. 6%, raw material stock index is 44%, reflecting the positive results were obtained in steel mills to inventory, at the same time, the low inventory of steel raw material makes the raw material is strong inventory requirements. It is worth mentioning that the production and business operation activities expectations index of 74. 6%, is the highest of all component of an index. Survey sample companies, 3 months for the future business activity is expected to turn up to 54% good, think the same, 41% think the slip ratio of only 5%, reflecting the majority of steel mills to late bullish market. For the steel price movements in the late, analysts also talked about his own views. First of all, the policy level is the most important reason for this round of steel price rise. And the prices, mainly due to steady growth policy developed, as well as the strengthening of environmental governance policies, market demand and curb steel capacity rapid release of ascension has played a positive role. At the same time, analysts say, although since late June, domestic steel prices have risen an average of 300 yuan/tons. But steel prices as a whole is still in a lower level. Among them, the rebar prices reached the level of early September 2012, is still at the low more than 4 years; Hot rolled, medium thickness plate is higher than in early September 2012 the price level of 300 ~ 400 yuan/ton, the overall price level is not high. Second, in the second half of the capacity to release by too much suppression is unlikely. The strengthening of environmental governance policies will inevitably to the steel market is good, but the expectations should not be too big. Because of the backward production capacity not only involves the local government tax, employment and other issues, also can make bank losses. “ The current steel ratio reached 70%, domestic large and medium-sized enterprises mainly liabilities of more than 3 trillion yuan, if shutdown, loss of all is the bank's money. ” Finally, in the near future, the government has published a lot of stimulating investment policy, turn shantytowns into new housing areas, underground pipe network construction, the construction of urban infrastructure investment can actually form a certain role. Around desperately but we should also see, in recent years the construction of the development zone has become the rotten poop a lot of places, including iron and steel industry, the logistics park is saturated, many lower-tier cities of commercial housing vacancy rate has exceeded the police line, the investment has not much room to grow. Overall, analysts are cautious about late steel price movements. Later, he thought, steel prices are likely to be up before they fell, mid to late September the domestic steel prices will face greater pressure decrease, years Shanghai rebar spot market price back to 3800 yuan/ton, the futures price 3900 yuan/ton is unlikely.